Nebius stock drops 30% as $9B ARR goal raises concerns

The AI cloud provider has huge contracts with Microsoft and Meta, but investors are questioning the cost of reaching its targets Nebius Group fell roughly 30% in October, and the selloff has left the AI cloud provider nearly 36% below its recent peak near $300. The company is posting enormous growth. Investors are now asking what that growth will cost. The pressure comes ahead of a November 10 earnings report. That report could show whether Nebius is scaling fast enough to justify one of the most aggressive spending plans in AI infrastructure. Big numbers, bigger promises On paper, Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) is not a company in trouble. Its Q2 2026 revenue came in at $582.3 million, up 454% from the same quarter a year earlier. Management has guided for full-year revenue between $3.0 billion and $3.4 billion. It is also targeting annualized run-rate revenue, or ARR, of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026. ARR is a snapshot metric. It takes current revenue and projects it across a full year. Nebius hit $3.0 billion in ARR in June 2026, so the year-end goal implies more than doubling that figure in about six months. For the third quarter, analyst estimates point to revenue of arou...