Morgan Stanley says Tesla needs Robotaxi proof to win back investors

Morgan Stanley made that tension explicit in an April 20 note, reiterating its Equalweight rating on Tesla with a price target of $415, while flagging that the stock’s valuation rests almost entirely on the company delivering credible, scalable evidence of unsupervised Robotaxi operations. What Morgan Stanley actually wants to see The bank’s core argument is straightforward: Tesla approaching 10 billion cumulative Full Self-Driving miles is a genuine technical milestone, but accumulated miles are not the same as a working commercial business. As of early April 2026, Tesla’s FSD platform was logging an average of 19 million daily miles. That is a large number, but the metric investors care about is whether those miles translate into a vehicle that can operate without a human safety monitor in the seat. Andrew Percoco, who took over coverage from longtime Tesla analyst Adam Jonas, highlighted two additional pressure points: rising capital expenditures and negative free cash flow. In plain terms, Tesla is spending more and generating less cash, which makes the timeline for Robotaxi profitability feel longer and the risk feel larger. Houston and Dallas are a start, not a story Tesla la...