More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets

A new analysis from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective has identified 152 wallets on Polymarket International that appear to have traded on classified US military information, collectively raking in $8 million in profits with a 97.2% success rate on long-shot wagers. The wallets, dubbed “Orca” accounts by researchers for their focused, predatory betting strategies, achieved a 97.2% success rate on long-shot wagers. The analysis defined qualifying bets as wagers of at least $2,500 placed on outcomes with a 35% probability or lower. The Orca problem ACDC’s research, published on August 20, covered all settled Polymarket markets through May 5, 2026, casting a wide net across the platform’s military and defense betting categories. The group found that dozens of the 152 Orca wallets had never been flagged before, meaning they operated under the radar while consistently nailing outcomes that, by definition, most traders got wrong. The findings also spotlight a secondary risk: copycat trading. Because Polymarket runs on a public blockchain, anyone monitoring on-chain activity can see when large, unusual bets appear. ACDC found evidence that other market participants did exactly that. Bef...