Midterm Polymarket Odds: Democrats 91.5% House, 64% Senate

Polymarket traders give Democrats a 91.5% chance of winning the House and a 64.5% chance of taking the Senate in the 2026 midterms on November 3, as of Tuesday, October 20, a gap that decides who writes crypto rules next year. The midterm Polymarket odds treat the House as close to settled. The Senate is where the money is still moving. The same split shows up in a third contract. Polymarket’s balance-of-power market prices a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 62.5% and a Democratic House with a Republican Senate at 27.5%. A Republican sweep sits at 8.5%. So which way is the gap closing, and what does each outcome mean for crypto? JUST IN: Trump declares the midterm polls “are rigged.” — Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 19, 2026 DISCOVER: Democrats Are Favorites to Flip the House, and Crypto’s CLARITY Act Is Watching How Are the Midterm Polymarket Odds Moving? Toward Democrats in the Senate. The Democratic contract in Polymarket’s Senate market has climbed from 60.5% on September 21 to 64.5% today, while the House contract slipped from 92.5% to 91.5%. Over the same month, the split outcome, a Democratic House with a Republican Senate, fell from 30.5% to 27.5%. Each share pays $1 ...