Micron trades at 6x forward earnings as $38B in new chip capacity sits years away

Micron Technology is one of the cheapest large-cap tech stocks most people aren’t talking about. Shares are currently trading at roughly 5.4x to 6x forward earnings estimates for fiscal years 2027 and 2028, a multiple that would look more at home on a tired regional bank than a company supplying the memory chips powering the AI revolution. The low multiple isn’t an oversight. It’s the market pricing in a very specific fear: that a wave of new manufacturing capacity will eventually crash memory prices, compress margins, and drag earnings back toward earth. The twist is that this capacity wave isn’t arriving anytime soon. Why the market is discounting Micron so aggressively Analyst estimates peg Micron’s earnings per share somewhere between $153 and $164 for fiscal years 2027 and 2028, which means the stock is trading at roughly 5.8x the 2027 estimate and 5.4x the 2028 figure. For context, the broader S&P 500 typically trades closer to 20x forward earnings. Micron is pricing in pain before the pain has arrived. Micron’s fiscal third quarter of 2026 showed year-over-year revenue growth measured in the hundreds of percent, driven largely by surging demand for high-bandwidth memory,...