Michael Saylor highlights MSTR signal that dwarfs Big Tech rivals

Michael Saylor has highlighted that Strategy’s open interest-to-market-cap ratio has climbed to nearly 72%, far exceeding the levels seen across the largest U.S. technology stocks as MSTR rebounds above $100 alongside Bitcoin’s recovery.

According to a July 2 X post by Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor, MSTR currently carries an open interest-to-market-cap ratio of almost 72%, making it the highest among the companies he compared.

Tesla ranked a distant second at 16%, followed by Meta at 11%, Microsoft at 6.1%, Nvidia at 5.8%, Amazon at 4.4%, Alphabet at 4.2%, and Apple at 3.2%. The comparison comes as investors increase activity around the Bitcoin-focused stock after its recent rebound.

Heavy derivatives positioning has outpaced Big Tech peers

Open interest measures the total number of outstanding derivatives contracts tied to a stock. A high open interest-to-market-cap ratio points to unusually large positioning relative to the company’s size, although the metric alone does not indicate whether traders are betting on gains or losses because it includes both long and short positions.

Recent price action has coincided with the elevated derivatives activity. Yahoo Finance data showed MSTR rising to an intraday high of about $104 after reclaiming the psychologically important $100 level. The stock gained more than 10% during the session and has climbed over 23% from its recent low near $82 over the past five trading days. Even after the rebound, however, MSTR remains down more than 37% over the last six months.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The recovery in Strategy shares came as Bitcoin briefly traded above $62,000 after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data improved sentiment across risk assets. Other crypto-linked equities, including Coinbase, Robinhood, Marathon Digital, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, and Hut 8, also recorded notable gains during the session.

Wall Street still sees Bitcoin strength despite lower Strategy targets

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed to Strategy’s valuation as one of the indicators worth monitoring as investors search for signs that Bitcoin may be approaching a market bottom.

In his latest memo, Hougan wrote that MSTR trading at a discount to its net asset value would be one of the few signals to watch while also discussing Strategy’s recently introduced digital credit framework, under which the company could sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin.

Hougan argued that institutional investors are likely to overtake Strategy as the largest buyers of Bitcoin over time. At the same time, he maintained that the company is unlikely to become a forced seller because, in his view, no mechanism currently exists that would require it to liquidate large portions of its Bitcoin holdings.

Commenting on the current weakness in Strategy’s securities, Hougan described the decline in MSTR and STRC as part of Bitcoin’s cyclical process rather than an isolated event.

“This is a painful but necessary part of the current crypto market cycle, as it is with all cycles.”

Wall Street analysts have nevertheless become more cautious on Strategy’s stock valuation. As previously reported by crypto.news, Canaccord lowered its price target on the company to $130 from $163, attributing the revision to Strategy’s prolonged share price decline rather than any change in its long-term Bitcoin outlook. The brokerage said its investment thesis for Bitcoin remains intact despite the lower target.

The Canaccord revision followed another recent adjustment by TD Cowen, which cut its Strategy price target to $260 from $400 while maintaining its Buy rating, indicating that although valuation expectations have been reduced, some analysts continue to back the company’s long-term exposure to Bitcoin.