Market predicts 86% chance of US forces entering Iran by April 30

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

Iraqi militias and Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. embassies and bases. The probability of US forces entering Iran by April 30 is now 86% YES, up from 62% a day ago.

The markets reacted strongly to this escalation. The April 30 market surged 24 points in 24 hours, indicating expectations of a military response. The December 31 market rose to 90.5% YES, showing belief in troop deployment.

This market sees volume at $5.1M in daily USDC traded, with a deep order book requiring $84,737 to shift prices by 5 points, suggesting institutional involvement. The largest recent move was a 4-point spike at 2:14 PM, likely from a significant buy order.

The missile and drone attacks indicate ongoing escalation in the region. Traders are betting on a military response beyond airstrikes, potentially involving ground troops. A YES bet at 86¢ secures a $1 payout if US entry is confirmed by April 30 — a 1.2x return. Current odds suggest traders expect imminent military action.

Watch for statements from key actors like Trump or Hegseth, and any Pentagon announcements regarding troop movements. A shift in rhetoric or confirmed operations inside Iran could further impact these markets.

Markets Impacted

• US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
• US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES

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