Macquarie warns of oil surplus risk from potential US-Iran deal

Macquarie analysts have highlighted a potential risk of oversupply in the oil market, attributing it to a possible deal between the US and Iran. This development could significantly impact the balance of supply and demand for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, which has recently been in the low-$80s per barrel. The potential agreement may release additional Iranian oil into the market, easing supply constraints associated with the Strait of Hormuz and contributing to a surplus. As a result, Macquarie has adjusted its Brent crude price forecast downward, anticipating $77 per barrel in 2026 and $64 in 2027, reflecting expectations of increased Middle Eastern oil flows. Key Takeaways Macquarie’s analysis suggests a possible oversupply in the oil market due to a US-Iran deal, potentially reducing Brent crude prices. Markets appear consistent with a decreased likelihood of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30, reflected in current pricing. The prospect of an oversupply has led to a recalibration of price forecasts, indicating market adjustments in anticipation of increased oil availability. What to Watch Market participants will be closely monitoring any developmen...