3 hours ago
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Peru’s ONPE reports Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez leading with 92% of votes counted, and Rafael López Aliaga’s odds of winning the 2026 presidential election sit at 16.5% YES on Polymarket, down from 18% a week ago.
In the Candidates Advancing to 2026 Peru Presidential Runoff market, López Aliaga’s advancement odds have dropped sharply. With Fujimori and Sánchez holding the top two positions at 92% counted, traders are pricing him out of the June 7 runoff. The latest ONPE count effectively sidelines him.
López Aliaga’s election win odds at 16.5% YES reflect a slight decline from 18% a week ago. The market trades at $1.68M daily face value, with actual USDC volume at $210K. It takes $11,700 to move the odds by 5 points, indicating substantial liquidity. The most notable shift was a 4-point drop at 12:59 PM, a clear signal of growing skepticism about his chances.
Fujimori’s advancement to the runoff nullifies the First Round Third Place market as it applies to her. Traders who bet on Fujimori finishing third will find those positions untenable given the confirmed standings.
With Fujimori and Sánchez leading, Fujimori’s probability of winning the presidency increases while López Aliaga’s path narrows. Buying YES at 16.5¢ requires a dramatic reversal for a 6x return. López Aliaga would need a substantial shift in remaining vote counts or legal interventions affecting the current frontrunners to regain viability.
Watch for further ONPE updates or legal challenges from López Aliaga’s camp that could change the runoff lineup before the official June 7 decision.
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