Kalshi traders price 85% chance the Fed holds after weak jobs report

Kalshi’s market now gives an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate increases in October. The trigger was a September jobs report that landed with a thud. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added just 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs. For a central bank weighing another hike, that is a number that makes you put the pen down. What the jobs data showed The BLS released the September 2026 employment figures on October 2, 2026. Payrolls rose by only 29,000, a sharp miss against what the market had been expecting. The unemployment rate came in at 4.2%. Traders on Kalshi read it the same way. The platform posted an 85% probability that the Fed holds rates steady in October. How the odds have moved The shift toward a hold did not start with the jobs report. It built on a move that began a few days earlier with inflation data. After the PCE inflation report on September 30, 2026, Kalshi’s hold odds sat at about 65%. PCE, or personal consumption expenditures, is the inflation gauge the Fed tends to favor. Other readings of Kalshi’s market have placed a hold at approximately 72% to 75.5%. In those snapshots, the odds of a 25 basis point hike stood between 24% and 28%...