Kalshi tops $2.5b in midterm trading, nearly doubling 2024 volume

Kalshi has reported more than $2.5 billion in trading volume on its 2026 U.S. midterm election markets, nearly twice the $1.3 billion recorded during the 2024 election cycle. Summary Midterm election trading surpassed the 2024 cycle’s total by more than $1.2 billion. Kalshi said favored candidates won 479 of 487 races resolved by early Nov. 4. Its research put winner-prediction accuracy at 98.2% when polls closed, up from 93.8% three months earlier. Election-night updates showed traders backing Democratic victories in Texas and South Carolina as results arrived. According to Kalshi’s Nov. 4 recap, traders anticipated Democratic control of both chambers of Congress before Election Day, although they underestimated the size of the party’s gains. Using the company’s rounded figures, the reported volume represents growth of more than 92% from the previous election cycle. The comparison spans two different contests: the 2024 cycle included a presidential election, while this year’s voting centered on congressional, state and local races. Kalshi reports a 98% hit rate across resolved races In its initial tally, Kalshi said market favorites won 479 of 487 races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on No...