Kalshi odds for an Anthropic IPO announcement slide to 57%

Traders on the prediction market have cooled sharply on a pre-December announcement after pricing it near 90% a week earlier Traders on Kalshi have lost a lot of confidence in an Anthropic IPO announcement arriving before December. Odds on the contract fell to 57%, down from nearly 90% just a week ago. A 30-plus point drop in seven days is a real repricing, not a rounding error. The crowd that recently treated a near-term announcement as close to a sure thing now sees it as only a bit better than a coin flip. What the market is pricing Research compiled on the contract puts current Kalshi pricing in a 57-61% range for Anthropic officially announcing an initial public offering by December 1, 2026. That is a steep fall from late October, when estimates reached as high as 90%. The longer-dated contract tells a slightly calmer story. As of early November, the market was pricing a 69-70% probability of an announcement before January 1, 2027. So traders haven’t abandoned the idea of an Anthropic listing. They have mostly pushed their expected timeline back, and lowered their conviction along the way. Money is following the debate. Trading volume on the relevant Kalshi contracts has excee...