Kalshi and Polymarket now let you bet on drug approvals, and not everyone is thrilled about it

You can now bet real money on whether the FDA will approve a drug. Kalshi launched a suite of biotech prediction markets on July 16, letting users wager on Phase 3 clinical trial outcomes and full FDA approvals from major pharmaceutical companies. Polymarket has been hosting similar biotech-related contracts since as early as May. Trading volume on Kalshi’s new biotech offerings exceeded $100,000 shortly after launch, covering around 13 specific markets tied to companies like Sanofi, Eli Lilly, and Gilead Sciences. How pharmaceutical prediction markets actually work Kalshi’s contracts are binary: a drug either gets approved or it doesn’t, a trial either succeeds or it fails. You buy a position at a price that reflects the market’s implied probability, and if you’re right, you get paid. Kalshi partnered with AI firm AppliedXL to source data and resolve contracts. For now, Kalshi is limiting its offerings to Phase 3 trials and full FDA approvals only. Phase 3 is the final stage of clinical testing before a company submits its application to regulators. Polymarket, which operates in the crypto-native prediction market space, has taken a less structured approach. Its biotech contracts ...