Kalshi and Polymarket monthly volume falls 14% to $45B in August as World Cup hangover sets in

Combined trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket dropped 14.5% in August to $45.33 billion, marking the first meaningful pullback after months of relentless growth in the prediction markets sector. The decline follows a record-setting July that saw $50.59 billion in combined volume across the platforms. That peak had a very specific catalyst: the FIFA World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19 and turbocharged sports betting contracts across both platforms. The World Cup effect, in reverse July’s $50.59 billion represented a 7.8% jump from June’s revised figure of $46.95 billion. Sports contracts have accounted for over 88% of recent activity on Kalshi. Kalshi maintained 85-90% of its comparable weekly volume heading into late August, while Polymarket’s offshore platform saw a steeper contraction. In July, Kalshi contributed $37.7 billion in volume, roughly 74.5% of the combined total across both platforms. NFL steps up, but can’t fill the gap NFL preseason markets generated $167.8 million across Kalshi, Polymarket Global, and Polymarket US in the week ending August 16. Kalshi handled approximately 79% of that activity. Kalshi also posted a notable milestone despite the broad...