JPMorgan strategist warns US corporate equity exceeds 400% of GDP, dwarfing dot-com bubble peak

The US stock market is now worth more than four times the entire American economy. That ratio has never been this high, not before the dot-com bust, not before Black Monday, not before the pandemic. And JPMorgan’s top strategist thinks investors should be paying attention. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, calculated that the market value of all US corporate equity now exceeds 400% of GDP. For context, that figure stood at 244% just before the pandemic, 204% at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and a quaint 74% before the 1987 crash. A valuation gap with no historical precedent Kelly has been tracking this metric for a while. In a September 2025 interview, he noted that US corporate equity had already topped 300% of GDP, which was itself a record. The jump from 300% to above 400% in under a year suggests an acceleration that even seasoned market observers find difficult to rationalize. Kelly’s warning didn’t arrive in isolation. It landed just days after a McKinsey Global Institute study found that global wealth has been growing far faster than the economies that are supposed to underpin it. The McKinsey analysis pegged total global wealth at ...