JPMorgan projects Bitcoin will return 10% a year, beating US stocks and gold over 10 to 15 years

Bitcoin ranks ahead of traditional asset classes in JPMorgan Asset Management’s long-term return forecasts, with a projected 10% compound annual return over the next 10 to 15 years. The estimate is outlined in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, an annual portfolio-planning framework designed to help investors make long-term investment decisions. They project returns, volatility and correlations for more than 200 asset classes and strategies over a 10- to 15-year horizon. First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade. pic.twitter.com/TuOuH51l3c — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 20, 2026 JPMorgan’s 2027 assumptions put US REITs at 8.2%, US small-cap stocks at 7.7%, US large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, while cash trails at 3.2%. Despite the projection, Bitcoin remains outside the firm’s main portfolio framework. The outlook also assigns Bitcoin an arithmetic return of 20.9%, substantially above its compound-return estimate. That difference reflects the impact of volatility, with Bitcoin’s proje...