JPMorgan admits it cannot forecast oil prices as US-Iran conflict upends energy markets

One of the world’s most influential commodity desks just threw up its hands. On September 17, JPMorgan’s oil analysts told clients they have no baseline price forecast for crude, citing the prolonged US-Iran conflict that has scrambled every model they rely on. “We simply don’t know how to model the endgame,” the analysts wrote. The numbers behind the chaos The US-Iran war, which began in early March 2026, has hammered global energy infrastructure in ways that even worst-case scenario planners struggled to anticipate. A ceasefire deal reached in June collapsed shortly after, removing the last diplomatic guardrail from the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, that narrow chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has been severely disrupted. Supply losses tied to tanker traffic restrictions are estimated at approximately 10 million barrels per day. And yet, prices haven’t behaved the way textbooks predict. Brent crude has averaged around $94 per barrel since fighting began. In mid-September, spot prices traded between $103 and $106. The reason prices haven’t gone vertical is the other side of the equation: demand destruction. Global oil consumption is running about 4....