Jonathan Levin warns tariff inflation impact could peak around 2027

Jonathan Levin, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering US markets and economics, is making the case that investors have already mentally filed tariffs under “priced in” when the real inflation consequences haven’t even arrived yet. Levin’s argument is straightforward but uncomfortable: policy decisions being made right now on sustained or increased duties could generate inflationary pressures that don’t fully materialize until 2027. That’s a two-year lag between cause and effect, which is roughly an eternity in markets that can barely remember what happened last quarter. The tariff time bomb Levin has been tracking these dynamics since at least 2024, analyzing how tariff effects ripple through inflation data with a meaningful delay. His conclusion: the tariffs instituted or expanded during the Trump administration are still working their way through consumer prices, and the full impact could peak around 2027. He also draws an important distinction about tariffs as policy tools. They’re frequently framed as negotiating leverage rather than a permanent tax on imports. That framing matters for political messaging, but it doesn’t change the economic reality. Whether a tariff is meant t...