2 hours ago
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Israeli President Isaac Herzog is delaying a decision on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pardon request and is instead pushing for a plea deal. The market for Netanyahu being out of power by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES.
The Netanyahu out by June 30 market is at 5.5% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago. The April 30 contract is effectively dead at 0.1% YES. The gap between the April and June markets is where trader sentiment concentrates, suggesting traders expect a possible catalyst within the next two months.
Trading volume is $79,019 in face value with $1,762 in actual USDC traded in the past 24 hours. The June sub-market requires $9,495 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate depth. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop at midnight. The flat price action reflects uncertainty about whether Herzog can actually secure a plea deal that would force Netanyahu out of politics.
Herzog’s push for a plea deal, rather than an outright pardon, opens a path where Netanyahu could agree to leave office as part of a negotiated resolution to his corruption trial. Buying YES at 5.5¢ pays $1 if Netanyahu departs by June 30, a potential 18.2x return.
Watch for statements from Herzog’s office, Netanyahu’s legal team, or the Justice Ministry on plea deal progress. Any concrete terms or a breakdown in negotiations would move this market.
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