2 hours ago
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Israeli military raids in the West Bank follow a directive from PM Netanyahu to address escalating settler violence. The market for Israel suspending its Lebanon offensive by April 30 sits at 100% YES, despite the new military actions.
The odds of Israel officially suspending its Lebanon offensive by April 30 remain at 100%. Markets for May 31 and June 30 are also at 100% YES. No movement across any of these contracts, which means traders don’t read the West Bank raids as a signal of policy change on Lebanon.
The market for military action against Iran by April 30 is at 1% YES. There is almost no expectation of strikes from the UK, Canada, or Saudi Arabia within the next few days.
Both markets are thin. The Israel suspension market has zero trading volume. The Iran action market has $33 in USDC traded over 24 hours. Traders are not putting real money on imminent escalation.
The West Bank raids are a tactical response to internal security concerns, not a move toward new conflict fronts. The Israel-Lebanon situation remains unresolved, but the flat odds indicate traders treat the raids as irrelevant to broader military objectives.
Watch for statements from Netanyahu and the IDF. Any announcement of a strategy shift in Lebanon or de-escalation in the West Bank could move these markets.
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