Israel shares intelligence with US on alleged Iranian plot to kill Trump, rattling crypto markets

Israel passed along intelligence to the United States on July 9 revealing what officials describe as an Iranian plot to assassinate President Donald Trump. The disclosure landed on the same day Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran “over,” a one-two punch that sent shockwaves through global markets, crypto included.

Bitcoin and ether both dropped more than 2% in the immediate aftermath before staging a rebound in subsequent trading sessions.

What we know about the intelligence

The Wall Street Journal first reported that Israel communicated specific intelligence about an Iranian assassination plot targeting Trump. CNN and other outlets corroborated the existence of the warning, though no public details about the alleged plot’s methods or timelines have been released.

In 2024, the US charged an individual connected to an alleged Iranian plot targeting him, establishing a pattern that makes the latest intelligence feel less like a bolt from the blue and more like an escalation of an existing threat landscape.

The intelligence sharing came amid US airstrikes on Iranian positions near the Strait of Hormuz in July 2026, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. Trump’s same-day declaration that the ceasefire was over effectively signaled that Washington was shifting to a more confrontational posture in the region.

How crypto markets absorbed the shock

The initial market response followed a familiar playbook. BTC and ETH both shed more than 2% as the news broke. The drops were sharp but brief, with prices recovering in subsequent sessions.

Oil prices, meanwhile, surged. Crypto traders saw it and responded with risk-off sentiment, with institutional investors retreating to cash or treasuries.

The bigger picture for investors

The Strait of Hormuz dimension makes this particularly consequential. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through that waterway. Sustained military operations in the area could push energy prices significantly higher, creating inflationary pressure that would complicate the macroeconomic backdrop crypto has been navigating.

Higher oil prices feed into higher inflation expectations. Higher inflation expectations reduce the likelihood of central bank rate cuts. Fewer rate cuts mean tighter liquidity conditions. Tighter liquidity is, historically, the single most reliable headwind for crypto prices.

The 2024 precedent is also worth keeping in mind. When the US previously charged an individual linked to an Iranian plot against Trump, markets absorbed the news without lasting damage because it remained in the legal and intelligence sphere. This time, the combination of active military strikes, a dissolved ceasefire, and fresh assassination intelligence creates a fundamentally different risk profile.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.