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The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has halted operations for two weeks following a US-Iran ceasefire announcement. The ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 99.6% YES, up from 14% just 24 hours ago.
The largest single move came last night: a 24-point surge from 67% to 90% in minutes. The April 15 term is fully priced for a ceasefire, a complete reversal from its prior uncertainty. The April 30 market has moved to 99.5% YES, up from 36% a week ago. Longer-dated markets through June 30 and December 31 are all at 99.6% YES, showing traders expect the ceasefire to hold.
Liquidity tells the same story: $4.54M in USDC traded in the last 24 hours. It takes $246,725 to move the April 15 market by 5 points, a sign of heavy positioning. By comparison, only $42,162 can shift the longer-term June 30 market by the same amount.
The militia pause is a concrete step toward de-escalation and suggests Iran is seriously engaged in negotiations. With President Trump and intermediaries like Oman and Qatar involved, odds are fully priced, capping the upside for YES bettors.
Meanwhile, the Iranian regime fall market has dipped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% a day ago. Traders read the ceasefire as evidence the regime is stable enough to negotiate, making collapse by June 30 less likely. At 8.5¢, a YES share would pay 11.76x if regime change occurs, but the market clearly prices this as a long shot.
Watch for shifts in rhetoric from Trump or CENTCOM. The next major signal will be comments from intermediaries or a formal announcement of extended ceasefire terms.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy.
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