IRGC maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, ensuring vessel safety

## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, the YES outcome is currently priced at 26%, down from 28% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization” market remains supportive of a NO outcome.

## Key Takeaways – The IRGC’s statement suggests no change in management of the Strait of Hormuz, consistent with continued Iranian control. – Pricing in relevant markets suggests decreased likelihood of US lifting its blockade or traffic normalization by end of June. – Markets appear to interpret the IRGC’s position as maintaining tension in the region, impacting the probability of normalization.

## Article Body Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated there would be no change in the management of the Strait of Hormuz. He assured that civilian and commercial vessels would remain safe, provided they adhere to the transit protocols established by the IRGC Navy. This announcement follows the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, initiated by US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury targeting Iranian military infrastructure. Iran has since imposed a partial blockade, maintaining control over the chokepoint, which previously handled approximately 25% of global seaborne oil. The US has also instituted a blockade of Iranian ports, contributing to ongoing tensions and reduced shipping activity.

## Market Interpretation The IRGC’s statement is consistent with scenarios where Iranian control over the Strait continues, which may be supportive of NO outcomes in both the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” and “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization” markets. The impact is considered moderate, as it underscores existing conditions without introducing direct changes to the US’s stance.

## What to Watch Observers should monitor any further statements from the IRGC or Iranian government that could indicate shifts in their operational posture. Additionally, any developments from US-Iran negotiations or actions from key actors like Donald Trump and CENTCOM could alter current market expectations. The progress of mine clearance operations and reported vessel movements will also be critical in assessing potential changes in shipping activity through the Strait.

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