1 hour ago
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Five Iranian tankers were seen loading oil at Kharg Island amid the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 60.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
Market reaction
The tanker sightings show Iran can continue oil exports despite the blockade. The April 30 market at 60.5% reflects lowered expectations for normalization this month. The May 31 market trades at 86% YES, meaning traders expect a resolution by the end of next month.
Why it matters
Kharg Island remains firmly under Iranian control. The April 30 control market is at 2.9% YES, down from 4% yesterday. The June 30 control market is at 9.5% YES, also falling.
The perceived risk of an attack on the Kharg Island oil terminal has dropped too. The April 30 attack market is at 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday. Traders are pricing in minimal immediate threat to the terminal.
Iran’s continued oil flows through Kharg Island signal operational control, pushing down both the takeover and attack probabilities. A YES share on Kharg Island control falling by April 30 pays $1 at 3¢, a 33x return, but the current odds make this a long shot.
Actual trading volumes reveal thin liquidity behind these prices. The Strait of Hormuz market sees $10,250 in USDC daily against a $17,650 face value. Moving the price by 5 points costs just $354, so a single large order can shift the odds meaningfully.
What to watch
Statements from US CENTCOM or the Iranian government, particularly any changes to the naval blockade’s status or diplomatic moves toward a deal. These are the factors that will move odds from here.
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