Iranian regime collapse odds drop to 13.5% after US aircraft losses

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

Recent losses of U.S. military aircraft in Iran, including a downed fighter jet, hit Operation Epic Fury. The market for “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” is at 13.5% YES, down from 20% a week ago.

The market for Iranian regime fall by June 30 saw a brief rise to 14% before returning to 13.5%. While Operation Epic Fury has reduced Iranian attacks, the aircraft losses indicate Iran’s air defenses remain a threat, lowering expectations of a quick regime collapse.

Market volume is $59,602, with a face value of $439,688 daily. A spike to 14% at 7:21 PM suggests opportunistic buying rather than a fundamental change. With $195,733 needed to move the price 5 points, the market is stable against small trades.

This matters because Iran’s military capability complicates scenarios for regime collapse. The aircraft losses show Iran can still defend its airspace, suggesting resilience. A YES share at 14¢ could pay $1 if the regime falls, but this bet depends on a major shift in the next 88 days.

Watch for signs of internal instability in Iran, such as power struggles within the IRGC or unexpected actions by the Assembly of Experts. These would be critical for reassessing market odds.

Markets Impacted

• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 13.5% YES

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