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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is heading to Russia as US-Iran negotiations falter. The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 3% YES, down sharply from 14% yesterday and 62% a week ago.
## Market reaction
The visit to Moscow comes as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran have stalled. With Trump’s open-ended offer to negotiate via phone, traders are pricing in almost no chance of an imminent agreement on oil sanction relief. All sub-markets are consistently priced at 3% YES, showing minimal expectations for a deal this month.
## Why it matters
The odds that no US-Iran diplomatic meeting will occur by June 30 have risen to 15.7% YES, up from 9% just 24 hours ago. Araghchi’s trip to Russia suggests Iran is pursuing alternative diplomatic channels, which makes agreement on a potential meeting location harder. Logistical and political obstacles to a direct US-Iran meeting remain significant.
The actual cash traded in these markets remains modest, with the largest single move being an 8-point spike at midday. The order book is thin: $119 could shift odds by 5 points, leaving the market exposed to larger orders.
## What to watch
For traders, buying YES shares in the oil sanction relief market at 3¢ offers a potential 33x return, but this requires a dramatic shift in US-Iran relations within the next few days. At these prices, it’s a high-risk bet that depends on an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for Trump’s communications, particularly any official changes in sanctions policy or surprise diplomatic announcements. The next signal could come from Russian diplomatic engagements or Trump’s next public statement on Iran.
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