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Iranian diplomat Araghchi might meet with the US side, according to WSJ. The probability of a diplomatic meeting occurring by June 30, 2026, is now at 13.9% YES, up from 9% just 24 hours ago.
Trading volume hit $6,837 in USDC after the news broke. The largest price movement was a 4-point drop to 13% at 5:57 PM, indicating a recalibration of odds rather than a bullish surge. The location market shows similar odds, suggesting traders have converged on the same probability estimate.
A meeting with Araghchi would be a concrete step toward diplomacy, which is why these markets react sharply to any diplomatic signals. The odds have climbed from 2% a week ago. A YES share at 14¢ pays $1 upon resolution, a 7.14x return.
Watch Omani mediation efforts and any announcements from Iranian or US officials. These are the most likely catalysts for the next move in this market.
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