Iran warns US of ‘painful’ consequences amid rising tensions

Ebrahim Azizi, chair of Iran’s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, declared on state television that Iran is fully ready to confront the United States, warning that any actions by the U.S. would be met with “painful” consequences. This statement comes amid heightened tensions and ongoing exchanges of military strikes between the two nations, particularly around the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The rhetoric from Azizi aligns with previous warnings by Iranian leaders and reflects the increased intensity of the current standoff. The market impact of Azizi’s comments appears to be a significant decrease in the likelihood of a US-Iran deal in 2026, as reflected in the pricing of related prediction markets. The current odds for Iran Reconstruction Funding being part of a US-Iran deal in 2026 stand at 29.0% YES, slightly up from 28% a day ago, but overall pricing suggests decreased confidence in a peaceful resolution. Azizi’s statement is part of a pattern of deterrent messaging from Iran, which has been responding to U.S. military actions with its own strikes. The continued escalation indicates a challenging path ahead for diplomatic negotiations, impacting vario...