Iran war disrupts nearly half of global oil flows as Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that normally handles between 18 and 21 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products, has seen traffic collapse to between 2 and 9 million bpd. That single corridor accounts for roughly 20% of the world’s oil and refined product supplies, and six months into the US-Iran conflict, it’s operating at a fraction of its capacity. Middle Eastern oil exports have been cut roughly in half. The region is now averaging about 9.5 million bpd, compared to nearly double that figure in 2025. Iran itself has been hit hardest: its crude exports have cratered by approximately 90%, falling to just 260,000 to 300,000 bpd under the weight of a US naval blockade and persistent threats to commercial shipping. A chokepoint becomes a choke Before the conflict escalated in late February 2026, around 130 to 140 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz every day. Current estimates put that number in the single digits on some days. The disruption stems from multiple overlapping pressures. Iranian attacks on shipping vessels, the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and instability along alternative routes like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have all compo...