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Iran is threatening to retaliate after the US seized an Iranian ship, and the odds of Trump announcing a ceasefire breach by April 21 have jumped to 18% YES, up from 8% twenty-four hours ago.
The US-Iran ceasefire breach market now prices a breach announcement by April 21 at 18%, more than doubling from 8% a day ago. Daily USDC volume is $3,485, with $498 moving the price 5 points. The largest move was a 3-point spike at 11:12 AM, which lines up with news of the ship seizure hitting traders.
The US-Iran ceasefire end market for April 21 sits at 25% YES, up from 6% yesterday. Volume here is stronger at $7,248, with $880 moving the price 5 points, indicating more trader conviction that the ceasefire could formally end soon.
The permanent peace deal market for April 22 has moved in the opposite direction: 17.5% YES, down from 40% a day ago. Face value volume is $1.9M with $610,678 in actual USDC. That halving of odds shows traders are pricing out a peace deal given the ship seizure.
The ship seizure is a concrete escalatory act, not just rhetoric, which explains why breach odds more than doubled. YES shares for a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 cost 18¢ each, offering a 5.5x return. That bet pays off only if Trump or the White House explicitly announces a breach.
Key signals to track: any official statement from Trump or the White House on the ceasefire’s status, Pentagon confirmation of further military actions against Iranian assets, and whether Iran follows through on its retaliation threats or limits itself to diplomatic protests.
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