Iran says draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver and nuclear limits

A senior Iranian official disclosed to Reuters that a draft memorandum of understanding with the US includes a temporary waiver on oil sanctions, commitments to nuclear limitations, and the release of frozen Iranian assets. If finalized, the deal would mark the most significant diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran in years, with ripple effects reaching well beyond the Middle East and into crypto and commodity markets.

The draft reportedly gives both sides a 60-day window to hammer out a final agreement. During that period, the US would commit to imposing no new sanctions, while Iran would refrain from further uranium enrichment or expanding its nuclear facilities.

What’s actually in the draft

The proposed MoU covers several major sticking points that have defined US-Iran tensions for more than a decade. Iran would maintain the status quo on uranium enrichment and dilute approximately 450 kg of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles. That last part is notable because it introduces a domestic dilution mechanism, a departure from the 2015 JCPOA framework, which relied on transferring enriched material to third countries.

The draft also includes a commitment to no weapons production, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad. The Strait of Hormuz detail matters enormously. Roughly a fifth of global oil passes through that chokepoint, and any disruption there has historically sent energy prices spiraling.

Iranian state media have indicated that Tehran has not yet made a final decision on the proposal.

Oil markets brace for supply shock

Recent temporary waivers had already enabled Iranian oil shipments of around 140 million barrels to reach global markets. A more formal, sustained waiver would amplify that supply significantly.

More oil supply generally pushes prices down. For energy-importing economies, that’s welcome relief. For oil-exporting nations already managing production quotas through OPEC+, it’s a complication. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other producers would need to recalibrate their output strategies if Iranian barrels start flowing more freely.

Crypto’s geopolitical trade

Bitcoin prices climbed as expectations for a deal rose, with prediction market Polymarket showing odds of a resolution ranging between 37% and 46%.

But there’s a counterweight. US enforcement actions against Iranian-linked digital asset networks remain aggressive. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned Iranian exchanges like Nobitex, seizing hundreds of millions in linked digital assets. These actions are part of a broader crackdown on sanctions evasion through crypto channels.

The intersection of international diplomacy and crypto markets is no longer a niche concern. When OFAC sanctions hit an exchange, it doesn’t just affect Iranian users. It sends compliance signals across the entire industry, influencing how centralized exchanges handle KYC, how DeFi protocols think about geographic restrictions, and how institutional investors assess regulatory risk.

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