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Al Mayadeen reports that Iranian officials propose a new formula to revive talks with Washington. The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The proposed formula suggests ending conflicts in Lebanon first, then addressing issues in the Strait of Hormuz, and only afterward tackling the nuclear issue. This sequencing is a tactical shift, aiming to ease tensions before discussing Iran’s nuclear program. The diplomatic meetings by April 30 market holds at 1% YES, a steep drop from 22% a week ago.
The market’s thin order book, with just $972 needed to move the price 5 points, makes it vulnerable to swings from large trades. The most significant recent move was a 1-point drop at 6:58 PM. Traders haven’t responded to the Iranian proposal with any buying pressure. Actual USDC traded in the last 24 hours was $613, a fraction of the $27,673 face value.
The proposal’s impact on the uranium enrichment market is negligible. The market for Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 sits at 2.5% YES, down from 6% yesterday. Because the proposed sequencing puts regional de-escalation first, nuclear discussions remain sidelined. The proposal is about easing immediate tensions, not resolving the nuclear impasse.
At 1¢, a YES share in the diplomatic meeting market pays $1 if talks happen by April 30, a 100x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need to believe in an imminent breakthrough, which current sentiment doesn’t support.
Watch for any announcement of US negotiators traveling to Tehran or Islamabad, which could shift the market. With the ceasefire’s expiry looming, the next few days will determine whether renewed talks are viable.
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