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Iran’s decision to uphold restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz has added tension to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. The likelihood of Donald Trump announcing a blockade lift by May 31 sits at 79% YES, unchanged from yesterday.
The May 31 blockade announcement market is stable despite Iran’s defiant stance. The April 19 odds, though, have dropped to 9%, with the largest move being a 6-point decline at 5:53 PM yesterday.
In the UK warship deployment market, odds for sending warships by April 30 have fallen to 7.5% YES, down from 12% a week ago. Iran’s restrictions, which it has defended as lawful, likely deter the UK and others from increasing military presence in the strait.
Total USDC trading volume across all sub-markets is $33,928. It only takes $3,730 to shift the May 31 odds by 5 points, meaning the order book is thin. A single large trade could move prices sharply, but recent trading has been steady.
Iran’s actions point to a controlled escalation strategy that complicates any quick resolution. At 18¢, a YES share for Trump’s announcement by April 19 pays $1 if the blockade lifts, a potential 5.56x return. For that payout to hit, significant diplomatic progress would need to happen within days.
Watch for U.S. Navy statements and Trump’s communication channels. A shift in language or unexpected diplomatic moves could quickly change these odds.
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