2 hours ago
2
Iran’s Army official states they fought on 12 fronts during the 40-day war, concluding with the US accepting Iran’s terms. The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by April 30 now sits at 0.7% YES.
Market reaction
The US declaration of war by December 31, 2026 sits at 7.5% YES, down from 8% a week ago. Traders are pricing in minimal escalation after the conflict, with the US acceptance of Iran’s conditions pointing toward de-escalation.
The US forces entering Iran by April 30 market remains at 100% YES, reflecting completed events rather than future expectations. The Iran military action against Israel by April 30 market also remains at 100% YES, with no movement, consistent with traders expecting stabilization.
Why it matters
The end of hostilities with the US accepting Iran’s conditions has compressed war probabilities across multiple markets. The declaration of war market has seen $329 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with $2,378 in order book depth required to move the market 5 percentage points. That’s a thin market where a few large trades can still shift pricing.
For traders, buying YES shares on a US declaration of war by December 31 at 7.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 13.33x return. But confidence in de-escalation would likely deter that bet unless new tensions emerge.
What to watch
Any new statements from Trump or CENTCOM that could disrupt the current peace trajectory. An official Pentagon briefing or Congressional action on military engagement would be the most direct triggers for market movement.
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