2 hours ago
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Reports indicate operational MiG-29s and fresh mines in the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting US claims of major Iranian military losses. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 8.5% YES.
Iran’s continued military activity, including speedboat patrols and air defense operations, points to a regime that is still functioning. The odds for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 ticked up from 8% to 8.5% YES over the past 24 hours. The market has $385,189 in daily face value and $30,969 in actual USDC traded, with room for a larger move if internal fractures become visible.
The 9.0% YES odds for the Kharg Island oil terminal being hit by April 30 are unchanged, as no specific threats to the terminal were reported.
Fresh reports of mines and ongoing hostilities in the Strait lower the probability of a near-term stop to military operations. Traders appear to expect continued tensions, which feeds into connected markets like the US-Iran ceasefire contract.
Moving the regime-fall odds by 5 points would require $26,254, so the market is relatively illiquid and waiting for concrete signals of internal disruption. A YES share at 8.5¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 11.76x return.
Watch for IRGC leadership changes or Assembly of Experts announcements, which could signal regime instability. Conversely, IRGC parades or a fatwa from Mojtaba Khamenei would reinforce regime strength.
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