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Iran is considering joining peace talks with the US, though no final decision has been made. The odds of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 22 have risen to 20% YES, up from 16% a week ago.
While Iran’s decision remains pending, the market for a peace deal by April 30 sits at 42.5% YES, a 15% drop from 24 hours ago. Traders appear to be hedging against the uncertainty of Iran’s participation. The May 31 and June 30 markets saw smaller declines, at 60.5% and 70.5% YES respectively.
Volume hit $1.64M in actual USDC traded in the last 24 hours. The order book is deep, requiring over $9,000 to shift prices by 5 points in the short term. The largest recent move was a 5-point drop at 5:27 PM.
This news signals a potential shift, not a confirmed move toward peace. Previous coverage showed Iran rejecting talks, and the market remains volatile. A YES share at 20¢ pays $1 if a deal is signed by April 22, a 5x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need confidence that Iran will confirm participation within four days.
Watch for announcements from Pakistan or changes in rhetoric from Iran’s Foreign Ministry. A shift in US naval activity or a named date for talks would move these odds significantly.
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