1 hour ago
2
The Iran conflict’s impact on the energy market raises US recession odds for 2026 in prediction markets.
The Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts 20% of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude prices up 50%. This surge in energy costs threatens US economic growth. Traders now price in higher recession odds for 2026.
The Fed and Treasury face pressure as energy prices exceed $100/barrel and LNG shortages continue. Indicators like yield curve inversions, rising unemployment, and negative GDP growth could further increase recession odds.
Market volume is thin, with $0 face value in the last 24 hours, suggesting uncertainty. Thin order books mean small trades could significantly shift odds.
This energy disruption poses a real risk to US economic stability. A YES share pays $1 if a recession occurs in 2026, reflecting belief in a severe economic impact from current tensions.
Watch for Fed announcements and economic data releases for signs of policy changes or economic weakness, which will influence market sentiment and odds.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) · 