Iran conflict drives up European natural gas, heating oil, and sulfur prices

European natural gas, sulfur, and heating oil prices have seen significant increases since the onset of the conflict involving Iran. The Dutch TTF natural gas benchmark is near €73-€74 per megawatt-hour, reaching levels not seen since early 2023. Heating oil has risen to approximately $4.68 per gallon, while sulfur is around 8,639 CNY per ton. These price hikes indicate heightened input costs across gas- and oil-linked energy markets, reflecting the broader impact of geopolitical tensions on commodity prices. In the context of these developments, prediction markets related to crude oil prices have shown notable changes. For the market concerning whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high by September 30, the pricing has shifted slightly, suggesting limited expectation of a near-term peak. However, the market for the end of the year shows more support for a potential high, with a 10.5% implied probability for a new record by December 31, a slight increase from the previous day. The geopolitical situation continues to influence energy markets, impacting pricing across various time frames. These market movements are consistent with scenarios where unresolved tensions contribute ...