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Iran’s top negotiator called the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz an “ignorant decision.” Odds for Trump announcing the blockade’s lift by May 31 are at 78% YES, down from 90% a day ago.
The May 31 market saw its largest single move with a 5-point drop, as traders priced in greater doubt about a diplomatic resolution. The April 19 market is at 8% YES, down from 28%, showing minimal expectations for near-term progress.
This market trades at a daily volume of $11,535 face value and $9,914 actual USDC. It takes $1,419 to move the May 31 odds by 5 points, a moderate level of liquidity. The largest recent move was a 5-point drop at 12:19 PM, suggesting traders reacted directly to the heated rhetoric.
The negotiator’s statement points to Iran’s geographic control over the Strait and the potential for severe escalation, framing the situation as a strategic choke point for global oil trade rather than a contained tactical standoff. At 78¢, a YES payout offers a 1.28x return. Traders betting on resolution should weigh the 12-point drop over 24 hours against the still-high baseline probability.
Watch for statements from the US Navy and Iranian military maneuvers in the Strait. Any move to defuse tensions or escalate military posturing will directly affect these odds.
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