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Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi labeled the US and Israel as the aggressors in the ongoing conflict, pushing odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 down to 11% YES from 20% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Araghchi made the remarks during a meeting with South Korea’s special envoy. The market for US-Iran diplomatic meetings by June 30 moved in tandem: odds that no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline rose to 7.6% YES, up from 3% a day ago. Traders are pricing in less chance of any diplomatic contact before June.
The nuclear deal market has $11,881 in daily USDC volume, with $2,254 in order book depth to move prices 5 points. The largest single move was a 2-point drop at 9:47 AM.
Why it matters
Araghchi’s statement signals Iran is not softening its position ahead of the April 30 deadline. The source tier is low, but the direction is unambiguous. At 11%, YES shares offer a potential 9x return, but that bet requires believing a breakthrough is imminent while Iran’s public rhetoric is moving the other way.
What to watch
Statements from the White House or Iranian state media indicating a change in posture. Any announcement of new talks or a direct diplomatic channel opening could move both markets sharply.
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