3 hours ago
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Iran’s Foreign Ministry declared that its 60% enriched uranium will not be exported, pushing the odds of the U.S. obtaining Iranian uranium by May 31 down to 26.5% YES from 20% yesterday.
The US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 market dipped after Iran’s statement. The odds had briefly climbed from 20% to 22% at 3:07 AM before the announcement reversed that move. The Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium by April 30, 2026 market is at 45.6% YES, up from 25% yesterday. The December 31 market sits at 65.5% YES, showing traders still expect a deal on a longer timeline.
Volume tells the story of how these markets differ. The May 31 market has $35,523 in actual USDC, with $33,304 needed to swing it 5 points, meaning it’s relatively stable and hard to move on minor news. The April 30 market, with $22,814 in actual USDC, requires only $2,047 to move 5 points, making it far more reactive to new developments.
Iran’s announcement reinforces its position on sovereign control over its uranium stockpile and reduces the probability of a near-term resolution. Buying YES at 26.5¢ is a bet on an unlikely scenario, paying 5x if resolved. That bet requires a rapid diplomatic breakthrough, which current signals don’t support.
Watch for Trump’s public statements and any diplomatic activity involving Oman and Russia. A shift in Iran’s negotiating posture or a surprise third-party agreement could move these odds quickly.
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