Investors are buying insurance against Big Tech’s AI debt binge

Big Tech is spending billions to win the AI race. Now a growing number of investors are paying for protection in case that spending doesn’t pay off. As of October 2026, investors are increasingly turning to credit default swaps (CDS) and similar instruments to hedge their exposure to the swelling debt loads of major technology companies. The worry is simple: will future AI revenue arrive fast enough to cover the bills already coming due? The hedging surge, by the numbers A credit default swap works like an insurance policy on a borrower. The buyer pays a regular premium. If the borrower defaults, the seller covers the loss. The price of that premium, called the spread, is a real-time gauge of how nervous the market feels. Wider spreads mean investors see a higher chance that a company won’t pay back what it owes. October 2026 brought a notable jump in CDS trading volumes, along with record-high spreads on several prominent names, including Oracle, SoftBank, Meta, Nvidia and CoreWeave. Five-year CDS spreads on Oracle have reached record levels, exceeding 288 to 322 basis points. Meta and Nvidia have both seen spreads climb above 100 basis points. CoreWeave sits at the sharpest end o...