How prediction markets let entities insure against risks nobody else will cover

In July 2026, an events company protected a $3 million conference against disaster for $12,000. No insurance company was involved. It used Prediction Markets instead. A prediction market is a website where people buy simple yes-or-no contracts on future events. Will it rain in London on Saturday? Will a certain law pass this year? Each contract pays a fixed amount, usually $1, if the answer is yes, and nothing if it is no. The price shows how likely the crowd thinks the event is: a contract costing 5 cents means roughly a 5% chance. The conference that insured itself The company, NEXTPredict, is organising a summit in New York in October 2026. If a storm or a strike grounded flights the day before, the event would still go ahead, the bills would still be due, but half the audience would be stuck at an airport. Normal event insurance does not cover that. It pays out if the venue closes, not if the venue is open and the people cannot get there. So the company went to Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the US government, and bought contracts that pay out if more than half of all flights arriving into New York’s JFK airport are cancelled on 21 October, the main travel day. It pai...