Google DeepMind exec predicts trillion dollar AI capex in 2026, tied to machines that improve themselves

A Google DeepMind executive is projecting that AI-related capital expenditures could hit the trillion-dollar mark by 2026. The key variable in that equation isn’t just bigger models or faster chips. It’s something called recursive self-improvement, or RSI, which the executive considers the new AGI. RSI is the point where an AI system gets good enough to start making itself better, without waiting for humans to do the tuning. The numbers behind the bet The combined capex guidance from the four major hyperscalers, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, points to roughly $725 billion in collective investment for 2026. That’s a 77% jump from approximately $410 billion in 2025. Alphabet alone revised its 2026 capex forecast to between $195 billion and $205 billion. Goldman Sachs has layered on its own estimates, pegging annual AI-related capex at around $765 billion for 2026. The bank’s cumulative forecast stretches to about $7.6 trillion from 2026 through 2031. Why RSI changes the calculus DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis has referenced RSI as a crucial focus for the lab’s development roadmap in 2026. The concept sits alongside multi-agent systems and traditional scaling as pathways not jus...