Goldman Sachs models favor France for 2026 World Cup, England gaining ground

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Goldman Sachs’ internal models now place France as the frontrunner to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, surpassing Spain, which had been the favorite for much of the competition. This shift follows France’s victory over Morocco and England’s continued progress after defeating Mexico. The models, which rely on Elo ratings and historical match data, have also noted a rise in England’s chances, reflecting their strong performances thus far. Market participants appear to react to these updates, as evidenced by shifting probabilities in the prediction markets.

France’s elevated status in Goldman’s models is consistent with the latest market pricing, where France is currently shown at 39% for a YES outcome in winning the World Cup. Meanwhile, England’s perceived probability has been increasing, suggesting growing confidence in their potential to win. Spain, initially favored by Goldman’s predictions, has seen its implied probability decrease, reflecting its diminishing competitive position in the model’s estimation.

While the prediction market prices have adjusted, they remain sensitive to further developments on the field and in Goldman’s forecasts. The dynamic nature of the tournament and the models used indicate that these probabilities could continue to evolve as the quarterfinals progress.

Key Takeaways

• Goldman’s models now favor France to win the World Cup, aligning with current market prices showing France at 39% YES.
• England is gaining ground, with its probability rising, consistent with market pricing that reflects increased confidence in their victory chances.
• Spain’s probability of winning has decreased, suggesting a shift in market sentiment following Goldman’s updated forecasts.

What to Watch

As the World Cup progresses, watch for any further updates from Goldman Sachs, as these could significantly impact market prices. Key matches involving France, England, and Spain will be critical in shaping future market movements. Additionally, unforeseen events such as player injuries or surprising match outcomes could lead to rapid changes in prediction market probabilities, reflecting the unpredictable nature of the tournament.

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