Goldman Sachs forecasts SpaceX AI revenue to surge 100-fold by 2030

Goldman Sachs is betting that SpaceX’s AI division will become the company’s most valuable business line, projecting revenue growth from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030. That’s a 100x increase in five years.

The projections are part of Goldman’s materials ahead of SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, where the bank is serving as lead underwriter. The target valuation sits at roughly $1.78 trillion.

AI eats the rocket business

By 2030, Goldman expects the AI division to contribute $322 billion of the company’s projected $474 billion in total revenue. That’s roughly 68% of all revenue coming from AI, not rockets, not satellite internet.

Starlink is projected to generate $144 billion by 2030. The core rocket business is projected at a comparatively modest $8.3 billion, representing less than 2% of total company revenue if these forecasts pan out.

Total company revenue is expected to climb from $18.7 billion last year to $474 billion by 2030.

The xAI acquisition changes the calculus

The foundation for these projections traces back to SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI in early 2026. That deal folded Grok and related AI assets into SpaceX’s operational framework. SpaceX operates the world’s largest satellite constellation, launches more payload to orbit than any other entity, and now owns an AI platform with potential applications including space-based data centers and AI-powered satellite communications.

Why investors should be skeptical, but attentive

Goldman Sachs is not a disinterested party here. As lead underwriter for the IPO, the bank has direct financial incentive to paint the rosiest possible picture of SpaceX’s future.

Getting from $3.2 billion to $322 billion means SpaceX would need to capture a significant share of the global AI market in under five years. The entire global AI market is currently measured in the hundreds of billions, so Goldman is essentially projecting that SpaceX alone will generate revenue equivalent to a substantial chunk of the total addressable market. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta all have massive AI operations with established enterprise customer bases, developer ecosystems, and cloud infrastructure that SpaceX doesn’t possess today.

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