Gas turbine shortage becomes AI’s biggest constraint as backlogs stretch to 2031

The gas turbines needed to power the massive data centers behind every chatbot query and image generation prompt are stuck in a manufacturing queue that now stretches into the next decade. US data center power demand is projected to more than double, climbing from 31 GW in 2025 to roughly 66 GW by 2027, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. The global turbine manufacturing industry can produce somewhere between 60 and 70 GW per year. Total orders already exceed 110 GW. A backlog measured in years, not months GE Vernova, one of the world’s dominant turbine makers, reported a gas power equipment backlog of 116 GW as of Q2 2026. That’s up from 100 GW just one quarter earlier. The company is now offering delivery slots as far out as 2031. Siemens Energy paints a similar picture. The company sold 100 gas turbines in 2024 and nearly doubled that to 194 in 2025. Around 60% of its recent turbine orders are connected to data center projects. Turbine prices reflect the squeeze. According to Wood Mackenzie, costs have surged by more than 195% since 2019. Manufacturers have started charging reservation fees just to hold a place in line. Capital costs for combined-cycle power plants have roughl...