Forrester says the AI bubble won’t burst soon, but firms should prepare anyway

The research firm's new AI Bubble Model finds infrastructure spending far ahead of demand, with deep-pocketed tech giants holding off a crash Forrester Research has looked at the AI boom and reached a conclusion that will satisfy almost nobody. The bubble is real enough to worry about, but it is not about to pop. The analyst firm’s message to businesses is a bit like a weather forecast that says no storm today, but you should still know where the umbrella is. In its view, a correction could still shake up AI suppliers, contracts, and pricing, even if a full-blown crash is not on the near-term calendar. Inside Forrester’s AI Bubble Model On November 5, 2026, Forrester published a report titled “An AI Bubble Burst Is Not Imminent.” It introduces a quantitative tool the firm calls its AI Bubble Model. The model works like a scale with two pans. One side measures supply pressure, meaning how much AI infrastructure is being built. The other measures demand absorption, meaning how much real appetite exists to actually use those capabilities. The two sides are not balanced. As of Q2 2026, supply pressure scored 4.95, close to the top of the scale, while demand absorption came in lower at ...