Fed rate hike unlikely at July FOMC meeting, but crypto markets are watching closely

The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day policy meeting on July 29, and the overwhelming expectation is that nothing changes. The federal funds rate should remain parked at the 3.50% to 3.75% target range where it has sat since the June 17 meeting. But “overwhelming” isn’t “unanimous,” and the sliver of probability markets have assigned to a rate hike is enough to keep crypto traders on edge. What’s actually on the table The FOMC meeting on July 28-29 is Kevin Warsh’s second as Fed Chair. He took over from Jerome Powell on May 22, and his first meeting in June resulted in a hold. No drama, no surprises. This week looks set to follow the same script. Market pricing reflects a modest probability of a hike, but consensus among traders and economists lands squarely on “unchanged.” The rate decision and Warsh’s press conference are scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on July 29. Warsh’s commentary will be dissected for any hints about the Fed’s trajectory in September and beyond. Is inflation still too sticky for comfort? Is the labor market cooling fast enough? Are tariff-related price pressures showing up in the data? These are the questions that will actually move markets. Why crypto cares ab...