Fed October Odds: Hold Hits 66%, but Is a Hike Just Delayed?

Fed October odds have swung firmly toward a pause. Polymarket now puts the chance of no change at the Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting at 66%, against 34% for a 25-basis-point hike. That extends a sharp reversal: just days ago, a hike led this market with about 67%. The repricing came in two steps. On September 30, hold odds jumped 28 percentage points in 24 hours to 58.5%, as hike odds fell 27 points. After the August PCE report landed the same day, the hold lead widened further to 66%. Bitcoin, meanwhile, trades near $84,116, up about 1.3% over 24 hours. The shift puts a hold in front, but it does not mean the Fed has changed course. The odds of an October Rate Hike have plummeted to just 37% 🚨 https://t.co/nJN7Mb6blx pic.twitter.com/9dXUPtesn4 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 30, 2026 Put Your Money Where Your Mouth is On PolymarketOctober Fed Odds: Why Did Fed October Odds Swing Toward a Hold? That report was softer than expected. Headline PCE inflation rose 3.4% year over year, below the 3.7% forecast. Core PCE came in at 3.0%, against expectations of 3.3%. July’s figures were also revised down by 30 basis points each. The October contract has now drawn nearly $20 milli...